Publicación: Cálculo de la probabilidad absoluta de una nueva erupción en la isla de Ischia (Italia)
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Universidad Industrial de Santander
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Ischia es la isla mayor y más poblada del archipiélago napolitano. Forma parte del complejo volcánico de la costa centro-occidental italiana y su actividad está relacionada con la presencia de fracturas profundas, asociadas a la apertura del mar Tirreno la cual comenzaba hace diez millones de años. El registro de varias erupciones históricas pone de manifiesto la posibilidad de que en un futuro no lejano se pueda producir un nuevo evento volcánico.El cálculo de dicha probabilidad representa una estimación esencial para evaluar adecuadamente el impacto que puede ocasionar el que se reanude la actividad volcánica en la isla; de hecho, en un posterior artículo, los resultados alcanzados en el presente estudio se emplearán para evaluar el riesgo volcánico en Ischia.Una de las pautas de análisis ha previsto la reconstrucción de un registro de las erupciones que se han verificado en los últimos 55.000 años; esta fecha coincide con la emisión del Tufo Verde, una de las unidades estratigráficas más importantes que conforman la isla de Ischia. Tomando como referencia al esquema de clasificación propuesto por Newhall y Self (1982), a cada erupción se le ha asignado un índice de intensidad, VEI, de manera que se divida todo el registro en clases. A continuación, mediante la aplicación de la estadística de Poisson, se ha determinado la probabilidad absoluta con la cual se puede producir un evento volcánico de cada clase de VEI en un intervalo de tiempo de 10 años.Si bien los resultados ponen de manifiesto que el valor de la probabilidad de erupción no es alto, éste no se debería subestimar, sobre todo en relación a dos características peculiares de este territorio que influyen directamente sobre el grado de riesgo volcánico: el elevado flujo turístico que recibe y el carácter insular.
The isle of Ischia is the largest and the more populous of the Neapolitan Archipelago. It forms part of the volcanic complex of the middle-western Italian coast and its activity is related to the presence of deep fractures, associated to the aperture of the Tirreno sea, which began ten million years ago. The record of several historical eruptions reflects the possibility that in the future not so far could be produced a new volcanic event.The calculation of this possibility represents an essential estimation to evaluate adecuately the impact that can be occasioned when the volcanic activity starts again in the isle; in fact, in a next paper, the results reached in the present study will be used to evaluate the volcanic risk in Ischia.One of the aspects of analyses has taken into account the reconstruction of a recorder of eruptions that have been verified in the last 55.000 years, this date coincides with the emission of the Tufo Verde, one of the classification scheme proposed by Newhall and Self (1982), to each eruption has been assigned a intensity index, VEI, in order to divide all the record of classes. As follows, by applying the Poisson’s statistics, it has determined the absolute probability with which it can be produced a volcanic event of each class of VEI in a lapse of time of ten years.The results reflect that the value of probability of eruption is not high; however, is should no be underestimated, specially with respect to two peculiar characteristics of this territory that influxes directly on the grade of volcanic risk: its high touristy flux and its insular character.
The isle of Ischia is the largest and the more populous of the Neapolitan Archipelago. It forms part of the volcanic complex of the middle-western Italian coast and its activity is related to the presence of deep fractures, associated to the aperture of the Tirreno sea, which began ten million years ago. The record of several historical eruptions reflects the possibility that in the future not so far could be produced a new volcanic event.The calculation of this possibility represents an essential estimation to evaluate adecuately the impact that can be occasioned when the volcanic activity starts again in the isle; in fact, in a next paper, the results reached in the present study will be used to evaluate the volcanic risk in Ischia.One of the aspects of analyses has taken into account the reconstruction of a recorder of eruptions that have been verified in the last 55.000 years, this date coincides with the emission of the Tufo Verde, one of the classification scheme proposed by Newhall and Self (1982), to each eruption has been assigned a intensity index, VEI, in order to divide all the record of classes. As follows, by applying the Poisson’s statistics, it has determined the absolute probability with which it can be produced a volcanic event of each class of VEI in a lapse of time of ten years.The results reflect that the value of probability of eruption is not high; however, is should no be underestimated, specially with respect to two peculiar characteristics of this territory that influxes directly on the grade of volcanic risk: its high touristy flux and its insular character.